Friday, 10 April 2026

18 negatives to Trump's Iran war and zero positives

Op-ed: Trump's elected Iran war has created a plethora of negative outcomes - listed. There will be more. Many more I suspect. And I can't think of any positives because the war was unnecessary. Yes, Trump has severely damaged Iran's military equipment but they can rebuild. They will rebuild and the damage by all accounts is less than boasted by Trump and his cronies. 

"Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas, according to American officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments," said a recent intelligence report


Negatives (not an exhaustive list):
  1. Thousands of innocent Iranians killed by US bombs. High casualties across Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and U.S. forces.
  2. The possibility that the Iranian regime will become more dictatorial when the war finishes.
  3. The Strait of Hormuz now potentially subject to a toll imposed by Iran which will strangle shipping going forward for an indefinite time.
  4. Europe's stagnant economy - including the UK - will be further battered by inflation due to the Iran war due to higher oil prices, and higher interest rates.
  5. NATO is ruptured thanks to the war as Trump believes that NATO countries should have stepped in and assisted the US. But the US did not keep NATO in the loop. Nor did Trump seek the approval of Congress. Many European leaders see the war as illegal.
  6. Russia has received a much needed economic boost due to a sanctions break (Trump's decision) and elevated oil and gar prices. This will assist Russia in its illegal war against Ukraine where hundreds of thousands have been killed. Trump's decisions are often immoral.
  7. The relationship between Israel and the US is frayed because many in the US believe that Israel dragged the US into this unnecessary war. This is Bibi's war. He loves to batter the Arabs as it keeps him in power! True.
  8. Gulf nations have had their peace, quiet and stability rudely interrupted indeed destroyed to a certain extent because of Iran's attacks on them. They are losing tourists by the bucket full. And those who planned to emigrate to the Gulf will now think twice.
  9. The US has spent $50 billion on the war. The US has a massive national debt that will, one day, cripple the country. Trump does not give a damn about the country's national debt because he likes to leverage debt in a business sense. The higher inflation due to the war will make servicing this debt harder. The U.S. national debt has surged past $38–39 trillion, rising by billions per day and pushing debt‑to‑GDP above 120%. Interest payments now exceed $1 trillion annually, outpacing many federal programs and eroding fiscal flexibility. As borrowing accelerates faster than economic growth, the government becomes more vulnerable to rising bond yields, investor anxiety, and policy missteps. The mounting debt strains budgets, fuels inflation pressures, weakens confidence in U.S. Treasuries, and risks crowding out future public investment—leaving the country more exposed to shocks and less able to shape its own economic destiny.
  10. The majority of US citizens are against the Iran war started by choice by Trump. No need for it arguably. The country is polarised. The US is still at war with its own public!
  11. Trump's Iran war is also arguably already lost as Trump has already committed war crimes! If he needs to do that, he has lost the war in my view.
  12. Severe regional destruction including critical infrastructure and energy facilities which will affect energy prices for a decade going forward?
  13. Risk of wider regional escalation drawing in multiple state and non-state actors.
  14. Supply side disruptions - LPG and fertiliser for example.
  15. A dent to Trump's support from his once highly supportive MAGA fans.
  16. Trump's credibility severely damaged.
  17. Trump's lack of ability to control Bibi Netanyahu who will not stop bombing Lebanon! More instability.
  18. China is strengthened by the war perhaps indefinitely. Why? The country has done a deal with Iran to let their ships pass the Strait of Hormuz and there is damage to the US and the Gulf States but China marches on untouched.
Positives:
  1. None that I can think of! Please comment.
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P.S. please forgive the occasional typo. These articles are written at breakneck speed using Dragon Dictate. I have to prepare them in around 20 mins. Also, sources for news articles are carefully selected but the news is often not independently verified. And, I rely on scientific studies but they are not 100% reliable. Finally, (!) I often express an OPINION on the news. Please share yours in a comment.

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