There are rather vague reports coming out of Ukraine and out of North Korea as one might expect. But we know that Putin has done a deal with Kim Jong-un such that North Korea becomes a partner to Russia in Putin's war against Ukraine.
North Korea is providing a substantial percentage of all the munitions used currently in Ukraine. Western intelligence sources said last week that half the shells used by Russia, about 3 million a year, were being supplied by North Korea. That's the level of support by North Korea.
The Times also reports that, "A security official in the Ukrainian government was responding to speculation by South Korea's defence minister that North Korean troops could soon be sent to fight in Ukraine. "It has already sent them" said the head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation in Ukraine.
So, on the basis that North Korean troops are already fighting on the ground in Ukraine, it would probably be fair to argue that even if North Korea does not declare war on Ukraine, this action would constitute a de facto state of war between the two countries. To restate that, arguably, North Korea is in a deep facto state of war with Ukraine at this moment.
North Korea would argue that they have North Korean troops on the ground in Ukraine but they are engineers and other support personnel overseeing the quality and use of North Korean weapons by the Russian army. It's confirmed that some of the support troops have died in Ukraine.
But the point here is that North Korea would cover up the presence of active fighting troops on the ground in Ukraine because they don't want to be in a de facto state of war with Ukraine.
However, Putin, we know, is running out of personnel to be killed in the war. He has stripped out many of the prisoners in prison in Russia and sent them to the front line to be killed. He is paying enormous salaries to Russians to fight in the war, several times their normal average wage. And there are signing on fees et cetera.
He is desperate to conscript new Russians (and non-Russians actually!) to fight in the war and is struggling to keep pace with the amount of deaths. This would point, I would argue, to the possibility that North Korean troops are actually fighting on the ground and that we have already entered a state of war between North Korea and Ukraine although this is not intended or stated.
Just to restate that because it is important. If North Korean troops are confirmed to be fighting in Ukraine, it would likely place North Korea in a state of war with Ukraine, even without a formal declaration. Such direct involvement would make North Korea a co-belligerent alongside Russia, escalating its role in the conflict and triggering international repercussions, including further isolation and sanctions. It would deepen the perception of the Ukraine war as a global conflict between authoritarian states like Russia and North Korea on one side, and Ukraine and its democratic allies on the other.
North Korea's direct involvement could potentially escalate the war by drawing in more countries or increasing the scale of the conflict. Other nations may respond by increasing their support for Ukraine, and some could treat North Korea as an enemy combatant in the conflict.
North Korea's direct involvement could potentially escalate the war by drawing in more countries or increasing the scale of the conflict. Other nations may respond by increasing their support for Ukraine, and some could treat North Korea as an enemy combatant in the conflict.
------------------
No comments:
Post a Comment
Your comments are always welcome.