Many extreme claims of human longevity are likely due to errors or deliberate fraud

Super old people are sometimes not as old as claimed according to this scientist by Michael Broad

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The news media regularly report on the oldest woman or man. Many live in Japan. How do they achieve such long lifespans? Here is a theory:

Saul Justin Newman's theory on record-breaking longevity suggests that extreme claims of human longevity, particularly in areas without robust civil registration systems, might be inflated due to fraud or errors in age reporting. Newman argues that some of the longest-lived individuals, particularly supercentenarians (people over 110 years old), might not actually be as old as reported. Here's a breakdown of his argument:

1. Lack of Reliable Documentation

Newman points out that many of the regions reporting the longest-lived people, such as rural or economically underdeveloped areas, often lack reliable birth documentation like birth certificates. In these places, age records are frequently based on verbal reports or family accounts, which can be imprecise or exaggerated. Without a birth certificate, it becomes much harder to verify the actual age of an individual.

2. Error and Fraud in Age Reporting

• Errors: In some cases, age might be overestimated due to innocent mistakes. People might not remember or know their exact birth date and may rely on rough estimates. These errors can compound over time and lead to exaggerated ages, especially in regions where age verification is not a priority or where official documentation is scarce.
• Fraud: Newman also highlights the possibility of intentional fraud. In certain cases, people may intentionally exaggerate their age for various benefits, such as pensions, government support, or simply for social recognition and status. In areas where record-keeping is lax, it is easier for individuals to make such claims without being scrutinized.

3. Geographical Patterns in Longevity

Newman observes that many of the world's so-called longevity hotspots, like parts of the Caucasus, Okinawa, and Sardinia, report an unusually high number of centenarians and supercentenarians. However, these areas often have a history of poor birth registration systems or inaccurate civil records, which may inflate the actual number of extremely old individuals.

4. Statistical Models

Newman uses statistical models to suggest that extreme longevity claims are more likely to occur in populations with poor age reporting. According to his research, the distribution of reported supercentenarians is inconsistent with what would be expected if their ages were accurate. This statistical anomaly supports his hypothesis that errors or fraudulent claims are skewing the data.

5. Implications for Longevity Research

Newman's theory challenges the authenticity of the oldest age records, which has significant implications for the study of aging and human longevity. If these claims are unreliable, then the true limits of human lifespan might be lower than what is currently accepted. Moreover, it may also affect research into the biological factors contributing to extreme longevity, as studies based on inaccurate data might yield misleading conclusions.

In summary, Newman’s theory argues that many extreme claims of human longevity, especially in regions with poor documentation, are likely due to age-reporting errors or deliberate fraud rather than genuine biological outliers. This casts doubt on some of the most famous cases of extreme old age and calls for more rigorous verification of longevity records.

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P.S. please forgive the occasional typo. These articles are written at breakneck speed using Dragon Dictate. I have to prepare them in around 20 mins. Also: sources for news articles are carefully selected but the news is often not independently verified. Also, I rely on scientific studies but they are not 100% reliable.